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UPDATED: May 7th, 2019
5/6 Bubble Watch
A weekend more of games are done, and here is our Monday update of the postseason outlook!
Locks: Louisville, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami
Should be in: NC State
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Duke
Bubble about to burst: Wake Forest, Virginia
Florida State nearly burst their bubble after losing Game One to Pitt. Big wins in Games Two and Three kept them alive for another week. Several of the ACC schools were off for finals this week. Wake Forest and Virginia both earned RPI boosts from how their past opponents performed this weekend, strengthening their resumes.
Locks: East Carolina
Work left to do: Connecticut, Houston
Bubble about to burst: UCF, Tulane
UCF stayed alive by taking two out of three from Tulane. UCF will likely have to sweep Houston in their last conference series to have a shot at a Regional. Tulane dropped lower on the bubble with the series loss. The Green Wave will have to win at least five of their six remaining conference games against UConn and Houston.
Work left to do: Creighton
Creighton is the only Big East team with a shot at an at-large right now. Should they fail to win the Big East tournament, there are good odds they still make a Regional.
Should be in: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan
Work left to do: Nebraska, Iowa
Illinois looks like a Regional team after taking two out of three from Indiana. The Hoosiers are still in solid position for a postseason bid, and are now also joined by Michigan who saw their RPI rise to 35 this weekend. Iowa's resume was bolstered by a series win over UC Irvine, but Nebraska is in worse shape after losing a series to Northwestern.
Work left to do: UC Irvine, Cal Poly
Tied atop the Big West standings, Cal Poly has yet to play UC Irvine or UCSB. If they win the regular season title, they will be in a Regional as the Big West doesn't have a conference tournament.
Locks: Texas Tech, Baylor
Should be in: West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Work left to do: Oklahoma
Bubble about to burst: TCU
Texas's bubble officially burst after being swept by Kansas. Oklahoma State is in better shape after a road sweep of Oregon State. They will have to make sure to keep their conference record above .500.
Should be in: Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic
Bubble about to burst: Louisiana Tech
Florida Atlantic increased their postseason resume by taking two out of three against Southern Miss, but Southern Miss still leads the conference. Louisiana Tech is in dire position after losing a series to Old Dominion. They may need to win out to earn an at-large bid.
Work left to do: Indiana State, Illinois State, Dallas Baptist
All three of these teams deserve a postseason bid. Indiana State took the lead in conference after winning two of three against Illinois State. Dallas Baptist lost two games to Missouri State and fell to third place in the conference. Will the Missouri Valley be a three-bid league?
Work left to do: Fresno State, San Diego State
Both Fresno State and San Diego State have top 75 RPIs and are competing for the Mountain West title. They have yet to play each other this year, and the winner of that series will be the conference favorite.
Locks: UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford
Work left to do: Arizona State, Cal, Oregon
Bubble about to burst: Washington
UCLA and Stanford still look in great position to host a Regional. Oregon State continues to be a lock despite being swept by Oklahoma State, though they Beavers may lose out on hosting. Washington took two out of three from Washington State, but has yet to play UCLA and is only 9-12 in conference play. They cannot afford to be below .500 in conference.
Locks: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Georgia, Ole Miss
Should be in: LSU, Texas A&M
Work left to do: Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee
Bubble about to burst: Florida
Ole Miss guaranteed that they will finish at least .500 in SEC and locked up their at-large bid this weekend. Florida was swept by Georgia and will have to finish at least 5-1 down the stretch in conference to have a chance at an at-large bid. Tennessee is four games below .500 in SEC play and needs two series wins. Tennessee and Florida play each other in what is essentially an elimination series this weekend.
Should be in: Texas State
Work left to do: Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern and UT Arlington both lost series this weekend and saw their bubbles burst. They will need to win the Sun Belt tournament to make it to a Regional.
Should be in: BYU
Bubble about to burst: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga
BYU took out Loyola-Marymount over the weekend, likely bursting their bubble. Saint Mary's took two of three from Gonzaga and saw their RPI rise into the top 75. Gonzaga dropped a midweek to Washington State, dropping them down to 75 in the RPI.
Some of these leagues have an outside shot of sending two teams to a Regional, but for the most part, the winner of the conference tournament will be the league's representative. Here are the likely tournament winners:
American East: Stony Brook
Atlantic 10: VCU
Atlantic Sun: FGCU
Big South: Campbell
Horizon: Wright State
MAC: Ball State
MEAC: Coppin State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Southland: Sam Houston State
SWAC: Alabama State
WAC: New Mexico State
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