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UPDATED: May 7th, 2019

5/6 Bubble Watch

A weekend more of games are done, and here is our Monday update of the postseason outlook!


Locks: Louisville, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami

Should be in: NC State

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Duke

Bubble about to burst: Wake Forest, Virginia

Florida State nearly burst their bubble after losing Game One to Pitt. Big wins in Games Two and Three kept them alive for another week. Several of the ACC schools were off for finals this week. Wake Forest and Virginia both earned RPI boosts from how their past opponents performed this weekend, strengthening their resumes.


Locks: East Carolina

Work left to do: Connecticut, Houston

Bubble about to burst: UCF, Tulane

UCF stayed alive by taking two out of three from Tulane. UCF will likely have to sweep Houston in their last conference series to have a shot at a Regional. Tulane dropped lower on the bubble with the series loss. The Green Wave will have to win at least five of their six remaining conference games against UConn and Houston.

Big East

Work left to do: Creighton

Creighton is the only Big East team with a shot at an at-large right now. Should they fail to win the Big East tournament, there are good odds they still make a Regional.

Big Ten

Should be in: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan

Work left to do: Nebraska, Iowa

Illinois looks like a Regional team after taking two out of three from Indiana. The Hoosiers are still in solid position for a postseason bid, and are now also joined by Michigan who saw their RPI rise to 35 this weekend. Iowa's resume was bolstered by a series win over UC Irvine, but Nebraska is in worse shape after losing a series to Northwestern.

Big West

Locks: UCSB

Work left to do: UC Irvine, Cal Poly

Tied atop the Big West standings, Cal Poly has yet to play UC Irvine or UCSB. If they win the regular season title, they will be in a Regional as the Big West doesn't have a conference tournament.


Locks: Texas Tech, Baylor

Should be in: West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Work left to do: Oklahoma

Bubble about to burst: TCU

Texas's bubble officially burst after being swept by Kansas. Oklahoma State is in better shape after a road sweep of Oregon State. They will have to make sure to keep their conference record above .500.


Should be in: Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic

Bubble about to burst: Louisiana Tech

Florida Atlantic increased their postseason resume by taking two out of three against Southern Miss, but Southern Miss still leads the conference. Louisiana Tech is in dire position after losing a series to Old Dominion. They may need to win out to earn an at-large bid.

Missouri Valley

Work left to do: Indiana State, Illinois State, Dallas Baptist

All three of these teams deserve a postseason bid. Indiana State took the lead in conference after winning two of three against Illinois State. Dallas Baptist lost two games to Missouri State and fell to third place in the conference. Will the Missouri Valley be a three-bid league?

Mountain West

Work left to do: Fresno State, San Diego State

Both Fresno State and San Diego State have top 75 RPIs and are competing for the Mountain West title. They have yet to play each other this year, and the winner of that series will be the conference favorite.


Locks: UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford

Work left to do: Arizona State, Cal, Oregon

Bubble about to burst: Washington

UCLA and Stanford still look in great position to host a Regional. Oregon State continues to be a lock despite being swept by Oklahoma State, though they Beavers may lose out on hosting. Washington took two out of three from Washington State, but has yet to play UCLA and is only 9-12 in conference play. They cannot afford to be below .500 in conference.


Locks: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Georgia, Ole Miss

Should be in: LSU, Texas A&M

Work left to do: Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee

Bubble about to burst: Florida

Ole Miss guaranteed that they will finish at least .500 in SEC and locked up their at-large bid this weekend. Florida was swept by Georgia and will have to finish at least 5-1 down the stretch in conference to have a chance at an at-large bid. Tennessee is four games below .500 in SEC play and needs two series wins. Tennessee and Florida play each other in what is essentially an elimination series this weekend.

Sun Belt

Should be in: Texas State

Work left to do: Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern and UT Arlington both lost series this weekend and saw their bubbles burst. They will need to win the Sun Belt tournament to make it to a Regional.


Should be in: BYU

Bubble about to burst: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga

BYU took out Loyola-Marymount over the weekend, likely bursting their bubble. Saint Mary's took two of three from Gonzaga and saw their RPI rise into the top 75. Gonzaga dropped a midweek to Washington State, dropping them down to 75 in the RPI.

One-bid leagues

Some of these leagues have an outside shot of sending two teams to a Regional, but for the most part, the winner of the conference tournament will be the league's representative. Here are the likely tournament winners:

American East: Stony Brook

Atlantic 10: VCU

Atlantic Sun: FGCU

Big South: Campbell

Colonial: Elon

Horizon: Wright State

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Canisius

MAC: Ball State

MEAC: Coppin State

Northeast: Bryant

Ohio Valley: Austin Peay

Patriot: Navy

Southern: Samford

Southland: Sam Houston State

SWAC: Alabama State

Summit: Omaha

WAC: New Mexico State

To keep up with our Bubble Watch, follow us on Twitter! For more on this week's rankings, check out our Composite Top 25 and our Conference Power Rankings. If you like what you're seeing from us, consider becoming a Patron.